Today, approximately 28 million registered Canadians determine their next government across 343 electoral districts. The snap federal election, called for April 28, 2025, follows the March resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the subsequent appointment of Mark Carney as Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister. Final opinion polls suggest a path to victory for Carney, but the decision ultimately rests with the electorate voting amidst economic uncertainty and following a recent national tragedy.
The contest primarily pits Mark Carney, the relatively new leader of the Liberal Party, against Pierre Poilievre, the seasoned leader of the Conservative Party. Carney, 60, brings extensive experience from international finance, having headed both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, though he is a newcomer to electoral politics. He contests a seat in an Ottawa constituency. His supporters point to his global standing, while detractors view him as part of an out-of-touch elite. Poilievre, 45, has been a fixture in Canadian politics since entering Parliament at 24, serving as a cabinet minister under Stephen Harper. Known for a more combative approach, he appeals strongly to the Conservative base. While Jagmeet Singh of the NDP and Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois also lead campaigns, the race for Prime Minister is largely seen as a two-person contest.
This election occurs against a backdrop of significant national challenges. Canadians grapple with inflation, housing affordability concerns, climate change impacts, and healthcare system pressures. Strained trade relations with the United States and broader global tensions add complexity. The election itself was precipitated by Justin Trudeau stepping down in March 2025; had he not resigned, a federal election would have been constitutionally mandated by October 2025. The final days of campaigning were also marked by tragedy, following a vehicle attack at a cultural event in Vancouver that resulted in 11 deaths. Both Carney and Poilievre paused campaigning briefly to address the nation and express condolences, condemning the violence.
Voting takes place on Monday, April 28, 2025, with polling stations open from 9 am to 9 pm local time across Canada’s six time zones. The country now features 343 electoral districts, an increase from 338 in the 2021 election. Initial results will begin emerging from Atlantic Canada as polls close there, with the final picture becoming clearer once voting concludes in the Pacific regions later in the evening.
The central question revolves around voter intention, shaped by the preceding campaign and the current political climate. The snap election seeks a mandate for Carney’s leadership and the Liberal platform, while Poilievre offers a distinct Conservative alternative honed over two decades in politics. Canadians face a choice influenced by economic anxieties, leadership preferences, and regional considerations.
Crucially, final opinion polls Canada indicate a lead for the incumbent Liberals. Data aggregated by the CBC Poll Tracker suggests Liberal support averages 42 percent, compared to 39 percent for the Conservatives. This polling data fuels a significant Liberal majority projection. Projections estimate the Liberals could secure around 189 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, translating to a 70 percent probability of forming a majority government, which requires 172 seats. Conversely, Conservative chances of winning the most seats are estimated at only 11 percent based on these Canada Election Polls 2025 figures. The polling also suggests potential setbacks for other parties, with the Bloc Québécois expected to lose seats and the NDP potentially falling below the 12-seat threshold needed for official party status.
While opinion polls provide a strong indication, the actual outcome depends on voter turnout and final decisions made in polling booths across the nation. The numbers point towards a Liberal government, potentially with a majority, but the collective voice of Canadians today will provide the definitive answer. The expected result, heavily suggested by consistent polling, favours Mark Carney retaining the Prime Minister’s office.
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Canada goes to the polls today: Who will be the next Prime Minister?
