Ontario finds itself standing at the edge of a landfill precipice, with the spectre of a trade dispute threatening to turn a long-simmering problem into an immediate crisis.
For decades, Ontario has shipped vast quantities of its waste to neighbouring U.S. states, particularly Michigan. This arrangement has become routine, yet fragile: one-third of Ontario’s trash crossed the border between 2006 and 2022. Now, concerns over potential U.S. tariffs or border closures have ignited a scramble for solutions, prompting the provincial government to fast-track the controversial expansion of the York1 landfill near Dresden.
Government officials frame the expansion as a matter of self-reliance, but critics are unconvinced. Calvin Lakhan, an expert from York University, cautions that if the U.S. were to halt waste imports, Ontario would face an “immediate crisis that we simply do not have the infrastructure to manage.” The problem is not new. Both the Auditor General and the Association of Municipalities of Ontario have repeatedly warned that the province’s landfill capacity will run dry within the next decade. Rising waste generation, fuelled by population growth, is outpacing modest improvements in recycling. Expanding a single landfill is, as Lakhan notes, “like putting a Band-Aid on a gaping wound.”
Underlying these tensions is the province’s chronic failure to divert waste at scale, particularly among businesses and institutions. A damning audit revealed that these sectors produce 60 per cent of the province’s waste, with a staggering 98 per cent failing to recycle. Despite ambitious targets set in 2017, Ontario remains far from reaching its diversion goals, leaving the question of what to do with mounting refuse ever more urgent.
Some see opportunity amid crisis. Environmental advocates urge investment in organics diversion, deposit-return schemes, and extended producer responsibility. Meanwhile, the controversial prospect of waste-to-energy incineration—common in parts of Europe and Asia—remains a divisive option. Yet, the clock is ticking: with new landfills taking nearly a decade to become operational, the window for meaningful reform is closing rapidly.
Ontario’s landfill dilemma is no longer a distant threat but a present reality demanding bold, forward-thinking solutions. The province has a choice: cling to short-term fixes, or embrace a long-term vision for sustainable waste management that ensures both environmental stewardship and economic resilience.
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Canada-U.S. trade war could spark an ‘immediate crisis’ in Ontario’s landfills
