The immediate aftermath of Canada’s 45th general election leaves the nation in a state of political suspense. While CBC News projects a fourth consecutive term for the Liberals under Mark Carney, the crucial question of whether it will be a minority or majority government remains unanswered, painting a picture of uncertainty across the Canadian political landscape following the April 28th vote.
The central figures in this unfolding drama are the leaders of the main parties: Liberal Leader Mark Carney, poised to continue as Prime Minister but awaiting confirmation of his government’s strength; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party gained seats but fell short of victory, and who faces personal uncertainty in his own riding; and Jagmeet Singh, who announced his resignation as NDP leader following a devastating night for his party. The electorate, having cast their ballots on Monday, now watches as Elections Canada meticulously processes the remaining votes.
What transpired was a significant realignment. The election solidified into a contest primarily between the Liberals and the Conservatives. This dynamic was largely fuelled by a dramatic decline in support for the New Democratic Party, which haemorrhaged seats across the country and is now set to lose official party status. The Bloc Québécois also experienced a downturn. The Liberals capitalized on NDP losses, particularly in British Columbia, and also chipped away at Bloc strongholds near Montreal. Conversely, the Conservatives made inroads into traditional NDP territory, notably in working-class areas in Ontario and Manitoba, and performed better than anticipated in Ontario overall, securing close to 45 percent of the vote there.
The uncertainty persists because the final vote counting was paused by Elections Canada after 3 a.m. ET on April 29th, 2025. At that point, the Liberals were leading or elected in 167 seats, tantalizingly close but still shy of the 172 needed for a majority. Over a dozen ridings across Canada were deemed too close to call, meaning the final composition of the House of Commons hinges on these outstanding results. The delay stems from the sheer closeness of these contests and the procedural need to ensure every vote is accurately counted.
Why does this matter? A majority government grants the ruling party considerable legislative freedom, while a minority government necessitates negotiation and compromise with opposition parties. The Liberal Party’s prospects hang entirely on the outcome of these tight races. The collapse of the NDP vote created opportunities for both the Liberals and Conservatives, reshaping electoral maps in various provinces. Furthermore, the election exposed internal tensions, particularly within the Conservative sphere, highlighted by pointed criticism of Ontario Premier Doug Ford by a newly re-elected Conservative MP, Jamil Jivani, suggesting potential friction between federal and provincial conservative factions moving forward. There are still devilish details to learn as the final counts proceed.
The coming days will be crucial as Elections Canada resumes and completes the vote count. The final tallies in those close ridings will determine not just the Liberals’ governing power but also the strategic calculations for all parties in the 45th Parliament. The nation watches, awaiting clarity on the precise balance of power and the direction of its federal government. The final results will dictate the legislative agenda and the stability of the government for the foreseeable future.
References:
5 key takeaways from Monday’s historic vote
